Delta Air Lines withdraws 2025 outlook as trade tensions shake industry

ATLANTA - Delta Air Lines has dropped its financial guidance for 2025, marking a significant shift in strategy as the airline confronts mounting challenges tied to economic uncertainty and escalating trade tensions, according to the Associated Press. The move comes just weeks after executives publicly expressed confidence in their long-term projections.

Shares fall before opening bell

What we know:

Delta posted a solid first quarter, reporting $240 million in net income, or 37 cents per share—up significantly from $37 million, or 6 cents, in the same period last year. On an adjusted basis, the company earned 46 cents per share, beating analyst expectations of 40 cents, according to Zacks Investment Research. Revenue for the quarter reached $14.04 billion, up from $13.75 billion, and ahead of Wall Street’s forecast of $13.81 billion.

Despite these results, Delta shares fell before markets opened on Wednesday. The airline’s stock is now down 41% since the start of the year, outperforming struggling rivals American and United but still reflecting investor unease across the travel sector. Analysts point to the uncertainty over trade policy as a major drag on demand and sentiment.

Economic uncertainty, stalled growth

What they're saying:

"With broad economic uncertainty around global trade, growth has largely stalled," said Delta CEO Ed Bastian. "In this slower-growth environment, we are protecting margins and cash flow by focusing on what we can control. This includes reducing planned capacity growth in the second half of the year to flat over last year while actively managing costs and capital expenditures."

Delta President Glen Hauenstein echoed that shift in tone: "2025 is playing out differently than we expected at the start of the year. As a result, we are adapting to current conditions while staying true to our long-term strategy."

Just one month earlier, Bastian struck a much more optimistic note during a presentation at the JPMorgan Industrial Conference. "There’s nothing that we’ve been through these last couple of months to indicate there’s any cracks in any of this," he said at the time. "We anticipate margins continuing to expand and we think margins will expand this year, even with the slower start to the year."

Earlier assumptions no longer hold

Timeline:

In January, Delta delivered strong fourth-quarter earnings fueled by robust holiday travel. By March, however, the company had revised its first-quarter outlook downward, warning that economic anxiety and lower consumer confidence were starting to weigh on demand. At the time, Delta reduced its revenue growth projection from as high as 9% to a more modest 3% to 4%.

Fast forward to April, and the company has now dropped its 2025 forecast altogether, acknowledging that earlier assumptions about travel demand no longer hold.

Consumers cutting back

Big picture view:

Delta’s reversal highlights the broader vulnerability of the travel industry to macroeconomic shocks. A growing trade war and rising tariffs have eroded confidence among both consumers and corporations, leading to cutbacks in discretionary spending—including on travel. The airline’s leadership is now choosing caution over confidence as it braces for an unclear road ahead.

While Delta once projected 2025 earnings of more than $7.35 per share and over $4 billion in free cash flow, those figures are no longer on the table. Bastian has also declined to offer a full-year update "given the lack of economic clarity," though the company is still forecasting second-quarter earnings between $1.70 and $2.30 per share. FactSet analysts estimate that figure at $2.21.

Strategy adjustment

What's next:

Delta is tightening its operations for the rest of the year by freezing capacity growth and scaling back expenses. As economic conditions evolve, the airline is expected to continue adjusting its strategy to preserve profitability while navigating a turbulent market. For now, investors and customers alike are left waiting for clearer skies.