Kemp, Walker hold leads in major Georgia midterm races in final InsiderAdvantage/FOX 5 poll
ATLANTA - The final InsiderAdvantage/FOX 5 poll ahead of Tuesday’s midterm election in Georgia shows Republican Herschel Walker with a narrow lead in the race for U.S Senate and incumbent Republican Brian Kemp continuing to lead in the governor’s race.
In the U.S. Senate race, Walker has 49% ahead of Democratic incumbent Raphael Warnock with 47%.
One percent of the likely voters surveyed said they would vote for Libertarian Chase Oliver with 4% either choosing "other" or undecided.
Gov. Brian Kemp (R-GA) speaks to voters during a campaign stop at Williamson Brothers Bar-B-Q on November 3, 2022 in Marietta, Georgia. (Photo by Alex Wong/Getty Images)
In the race for governor, Gov. Brian Kemp continues to have a lead of 50% with Democratic nominee Stacey Abrams at 45%.
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Libertarian Shane Hazel has 1%, with the other 4% of the likely voters either having no opinion or remaining undecided.
In the race for lieutenant governor, Republican Burt Jones has 50% ahead of Democrat Charlie Bailey at 43%, and Libertarian Ryan Graham has 2%. Three percent of the people surveyed in the Lt. Governor’s race chose other, and 2% either have no opinion or undecided.
The poll of 550 likely voters in Georgia which was conducted Sunday has a margin of error of 4.2%.
Democratic Georgia gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams speaks to supporters during a stop of her statewide campaign bus tour on November 5, 2022 in Savannah, Georgia. (Photo by Alex Wong/Getty Images)
InsiderAdvantage Chairman Matt Towery, who oversaw the poll, says it appears both the race for governor and lieutenant governor appears headed to Republican wins without a runoff.
Towery sees the Governor’s race having an impact on the U.S. Senate race.
Senator Raphael Warnock (D-GA) meets with community members to encourage them to come out and vote on the first day of early voting on October 17, 2022 in Duluth, Georgia. (Photo by Megan Varner/Getty Images)
"Ironically, the poor performance by Stacey Abrams in her contest appears to be impacting Sen. Warnock in his race," Towery said. "The final breakdown of early voting in Georgia indicates a less than robust African American turnout. Our weighting adjusts that demographic at a higher final percentage in the event there is a more traditional/more robust turnout on Election Day. While African Americans traditionally vote in overwhelming numbers for Democrats, our recent surveys have shown Walker with a solid 20% of that vote. Among white voters, Walker is surpassing the "magic" 61% usually needed for a Republican to win in the state. Brian Kemp's strong performance may well "lift all boats" and put Walker over the necessary 50% plus one needed to escape a runoff. We expect Kemp to hit at least the 54% mark in the final vote and likely above that."
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"With the rest of the GOP ticket above 50%, there is an increasing likelihood of a straight-up Walker win. Warnock's best hope is to hold Herschel Walker just under 50% and live to fight on in a now shortened Georgia runoff which would favor Walker", added Towery.
A Herschel Walker campaign event on November 6, 2022 in Hiram, Georgia. (Photo by Elijah Nouvelage/Getty Images)
InsiderAdvantage was recently named the second most accurate national pollster for the 2016 through 2020 presidential, Senate, and gubernatorial election cycles and the third most accurate national pollsters for the 2020 presidential cycle by RealClearPolitics. The firm was rated ahead of every national news network and newspaper in both of the rankings of pollsters who poll in multiple states and nationwide.
Election Day taking place on Tuesday, Nov. 8.