Hurricane forecast: Milton strengthens to Category 5 as Florida orders evacuations

TAMPA, Fla. - Milton increased to a Category 5 hurricane later Monday morning as it barreled toward an already-battered Florida, prompting the state to prepare for what could be its biggest evacuation in seven years. 

Scientists expect the system to weaken slightly before landfall, though it could retain hurricane strength as it churns across central Florida toward the Atlantic Ocean. That would largely spare other states ravaged by Helene, which killed at least 230 people on its path from Florida to the Carolinas.

The last hurricane to be a Category 5 at landfall in the mainland U.S. was Michael in 2018.

According to the National Hurricane Center, maximum sustained winds within Milton increased to 180 mph.

Florida officials warned residents about potentially deadly storm surge, destructive winds and flooding rain, prompting watches and warnings for many parts of the state. 

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said Monday that it was imperative for debris from Helene to be cleared ahead of Milton’s arrival so the pieces cannot become projectiles. More than 300 vehicles gathered debris Sunday.

Here’s what to know about Hurricane Milton:

Milton’s projected path 

Milton intensified quickly Monday over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. According to the agency, Hurricane Milton is moving off to the east-southeast, and that general motion is expected to continue through Monday night. After that, the NHC said Hurricane Milton should make a turn to the east and then northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday.

The storm’s center was about 675 miles (1085 kilometers) southwest of Tampa by late Monday.

On that forecast track, Hurricane Milton is expected to move near or just north of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Monday and Tuesday, then cross the eastern Gulf of Mexico and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by Wednesday.

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Hurricane Milton storm surge

A Storm Surge Watch was issued along Florida's Gulf Coast, and is in effect from Flamingo northward to the Suwannee River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay.

The current storm surge forecast for Tampa Bay is up to 15 feet if the peak surge coincides with high tide. That's the highest ever predicted for the region and nearly double the levels reached two weeks ago during Helene, said National Hurricane Center spokesperson Maria Torres.

The storm could also bring widespread flooding. Five to 10 inches (13 to 25 centimeters) of rain was forecast for mainland Florida and the Keys, with as much as 15 inches (38 centimeters) expected in some places.

Although Tampa hasn’t been hit directly by a hurricane in over a century, other parts of Florida’s Gulf Coast are recovering from such storms in the past two years. The Fort Myers area in southwest Florida is still rebuilding from Hurricane Ian, which caused $112 billion in damage in 2022. Three hurricanes have thrashed Florida’s Big Bend region in just 13 months, including Helene.

Hurricane Milton watches and warnings 

Much of Florida’s west coast was under hurricane and storm surge warnings. A hurricane warning was also issued for parts of Mexico’s Yucatan state, which expected to get sideswiped.