Michigan primary 2024 takeaways: Trump-Biden win edging closer to a rematch
President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump easily won their Michigan primaries on Tuesday, further solidifying the all-but-certain rematch between the two men.
However, the results showed that both candidates have cause for concern in their bid to win the swing state in November.
The votes in Michigan have been close the last two presidential elections, with Trump winning in 2016 by about 11,000 votes and losing to Biden by nearly 154,000 votes four years later. But a cloud of apathy has settled over voters this time around, as many are anticipating the likely rematch between Trump and Biden in November.
Much like Nevada’s primary made headlines when "None of these candidates" won on Feb. 6, Michigan’s primary had an "Uncommitted" option – the first indication of how backlash over Biden's handling of the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza might impact his reelection campaign.
Meanwhile, Trump won his primary by a large margin, but support for rival Nikki Haley once again showed that some Republican voters may have misgivings about giving the former president another four years in the general election.
Here are some takeaways from Michigan’s primary:
Live election results
Biden wins despite concerns of ‘uncommitted’ voters
US President Joe Biden speaks during the National Governors Association Winter Meeting in the East Room of the White House in Washington, DC, US, on Friday, Feb. 23, 2024. Photographer: Leigh Vogel/Bloomberg via Getty Images
Michigan was the last major primary state before Super Tuesday, and both sides were watching closely for implications for the November general election in one of the few genuine swing states left in the country.
Biden has now cruised to victories over lesser known candidates in South Carolina, Nevada and New Hampshire, which he won in a write-in campaign. Tuesday's results show that his standing is still strong in Michigan, which Biden returned to the Democratic column in 2020.
But fury over Biden's support of Israel spurred a breakout campaign urging Democratic supporters on Tuesday to vote "uncommitted" on their ballot.
Michigan, and specifically the metro Detroit area, has the largest concentration of Muslims and Arabic speakers in the United States.
Organizers of the "uncommitted" movement had purposely kept expectations low, having only seriously begun their push a few weeks ago. The "Listen to Michigan" campaign that organized the push said they were hoping for 10,000 votes, pointing to Trump’s win of less than 11,000 votes in 2016 to show the significance of that number.
When Barack Obama ran for reelection in 2012, the last time a Democratic presidential incumbent sought re-election, the "uncommitted" option received close to 21,000 votes — or 11 percentage points.
The movement to vote "uncommitted," backed by U.S. Rep. Rashida Tlaib, made enough noise for the Biden administration to send a White House delegation to meet with Arab and Muslim leaders and discuss policy.
Biden still dominated Michigan’s primary, but the result could be a concern in a state he won by less than 3% in 2020 and likely can’t afford to lose this year.
The "uncommitted" vote totals would need to be between 20 and 30 percentage points for Democrats to worry about their impact in November, said Richard Czuba, a pollster who has long tracked Michigan politics.
"Twenty percent gets my attention. If it rises to 25%, that gets a lot more attention and if it rises above 30%, I think that’s a signal that Joe Biden has pretty substantial issues in his base," said Czuba.
Much of the "uncommitted" vote was expected to come from the east side of the state, in communities such as Dearborn and Hamtramck, where Arab Americans represent close to half of the population. Biden won Dearborn by a roughly 3-to-1 advantage in 2020 and Hamtramck by a 5 to 1 margin.
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Trump’s has clear victory in Michigan, but some still oppose
Despite Trump's clear victory in Michigan, Haley still saw significant support from the swing state's Republicans.
Some of her best results came in Oakland and Kent counties, where Democrats have been gaining ground in recent years, contributing to their recent statewide success. She also performed better in counties where the state’s largest universities are located, Washtenaw and Ingham counties.
Trump has dominated in primaries with help from his base but his strength among general election voters remains unclear. The former president has appeared in Michigan regularly in the eight years since he became president, while Haley only began stumping in the state over the weekend.
A large portion of Trump’s opposition within the Republican primaries has come from voters who abandoned him before this year, according to the Associated Press.
On the Republican side, Trump swept the first five states on the Republican primary calendar.
His victory in Michigan over his last major primary challenger, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, comes after the former president defeated her by 20 percentage points in her home state of South Carolina on Saturday.
This story was reported from Detroit. The Associated Press and FOX 2 Detroit contributed.