New FOX 5 Poll: Dead Heat between Kemp, Perdue due to Trump endorsement

ATLANTA - A new FOX 5 Atlanta/Insider Advantage poll shows former President Donald Trump’s endorsement in the Georgia Governor’s race will have a huge impact on likely voters.

The poll shows a Trump endorsement of former U.S. Senator David Perdue has made the race between Perdue and incumbent Governor Brian Kemp a dead heat.

The survey took place on the evening of Monday, December 6th, a short time before the Trump endorsement of Perdue became official. 

The survey of 500 registered likely Republican primary voters asked the ballot question and then asked what impact a Trump endorsement would have on the respondents’ vote:

Q.1 If the Republican Primary for Governor of Georgia were held today for whom would you vote?

• Vernon Jones: 11%
• Brian Kemp (Incumbent): 41%
• David Perdue: 22%
• Kandiss Taylor: 4%
• Undecided: 22%

Q.2 As you may have heard, President Trump is planning to endorse David Perdue in the Republican Primary for Governor. Knowing this information how would you vote?

• Vernon Jones: 10%
• Brian Kemp (Incumbent): 34%
• David Perdue: 34%
• Kandiss Taylor: 4%
• Undecided: 18%

The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5%.

WHO IS RUNNING IN THE GEORGIA GOVERNOR RACE IN 2022?

InsiderAdvantage Chairman Matt Towery told FOX 5, "This shows the amazing impact that a Trump endorsement can have on a Republican primary and certainly in Georgia. In my many years of polling I have never seen any other individual endorsement move as many points in a single survey." 

The former President’s endorsement of Perdue did not come as a surprise, as Mr. Trump has blasted Governor Kemp for months over the governor’s refusal to overturn the results of the 2020 Presidential election in Georgia.

FORMER U.S. SENATOR DAVID PERDUE FORMALLY ANNOUNCES RUN FOR GEORGIA GOVERNOR

In his endorsement, former President Trump wrote, "Glad to see that David Perdue is running for Governor of Georgia. He is a Conservative fighter who isn’t afraid of the Radical Left, and is the only candidate in Georgia who can beat Stacey ‘The Hoax’ Abrams in November. Brian Kemp has failed Georgia. He caved to Stacey Abrams before the 202 Election and allowed massive Election Fraud to take place. The signing of the Stacey Abrams-backed Consent Decree, so stupidly giving her and the Democrats everything they wanted, was a monumental mistake not only for Georgia, but also for our Nation!"

Calling Kemp a very weak governor, the former President added, "David Perdue and Herschel Walker (who I have already strongly endorsed) will make an unstoppable team for Georgia. Trump supporters will turn out to voter for these great leaders in big numbers. David Perdue has my Complete and Total Endorsement. He will not let you down!"

KEMP, FACING POTENTIAL TRUMP-BACKED PRIMARY CHALLENGE AHEAD OF ABRAMS REMATCH, VOWS HE WON'T BE 'OUTWORKED'

The endorsement follows Perdue’s announcement on Twitter Monday morning that he will challenge Kemp for the Republican nomination next year. The former President had encouraged Perdue for weeks to enter the Governor’s race, after he pushed Walker to run for U.S. Senate against incumbent Democrat Rev. Rafael Warnock.

Perdue and Kemp join former DeKalb County CEO and State Representative Vernon Jones and South Georgia educator Dr. Kandiss Taylor as announced Republican candidates.

STACEY ABRAMS ON WHY SHE IS RUNNING FOR GOVERNOR IN 2022

Abrams announced last week that she will once again seek the Democratic nomination.

Kemp defeated Abrams by more than 50 thousand voters in the 2018 general election in a highly charged and competitive election with Abrams never conceding defeat. 

According to Towery, "There have been some instances where I encountered substantial movement based on an endorsement in a Democratic primary by former President Obama, but never to this extent. This should be a huge additional wake-up call to national GOP leaders and candidates as to the political might of Trump."

Former Reagan pollster Craig Keshishian who serves as a Senior Pollster with InsiderAdvantage added, "When President Trump lends an endorsement it upends the political landscape in which he engages."

In looking at the impact of the endorsement on Kemp, Towery said, "Based on all of the polling I’ve seen, Governor Kemp’s base support level is likely below 45% regardless of the Trump endorsement. That is certainly not fatal, but it presents a unique challenge for an incumbent Georgia governor."

According to Towery, "This race will be what I often refer to as a ‘Town versus Gown’ contest. While the more suburban and politically connected "Gown" Republicans will favor Kemp, the working class and more exurban and rural GOP voters will be more likely to support Perdue, Jones or another candidate." 

Looking at the impact of Jones and Taylor in the Republican race, Towery said, "In the second ballot question (with the Trump endorsement included) both Vernon Jones and Kandiss Taylor’s percentages stay about the same. Both candidates are considered strong supporters of Donald Trump. This could make Jones and Taylor major players in any runoff contest between Kemp and Perdue."

Towery who followed and polled Georgia politics for decades sees Abrams as a strong candidate for the Democrats.

Towery states "I believe many Georgia Republicans are fooling themselves by thinking the race should be theirs to lose. Abrams is an internationally known, incredibly well-funded Democrat in a state where demographics are swiftly shifting against statewide Republican candidates. It will be a major challenge for the Republican nominee to survive against her, even in what we believe will be a big year for the GOP nationally."

The Republican and Democratic primaries will take place on May 24 with a runoff if necessary on June 21. The general election is on Tuesday, November 8.

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