Snow in Georgia? Why the latest social media posts are misleading
ATLANTA - It’s that time of year when people start paying too close attention to forecast models and not enough to the actual forecast.
Currently, there is no snow in the forecast for metro Atlanta for the next 10 days, no matter what you saw on social media.
Snow maps on social media are not forecasts
What they're saying:
While social media posts are circulating with weather models predicting snow, FOX 5 Storm Team meteorologist Alex Forbes says those maps should be taken with more than a few grains of salt.
"It’s not helpful to have those floating around out there, especially the one-off runs," Forbes warned.
The reason is simple: There is a difference between a forecast model and the forecast itself.
"If we showed every single model that had snow at some point, we would have seen four or five events already this year," Forbes said.
Why weather models are like GPS navigation
Dig deeper:
The difference between a weather model and a forecast is like using GPS navigation. When you get into the car and plug in a destination, you are usually given several routes to choose from. Along the way, those routes may change as new traffic data comes in, offering a detour to avoid a major backup.
In this metaphor, the routes are the models. The new traffic data represents new model runs arriving throughout the day. Ultimately, you are the one who chooses the path based on your experience and you still have your hands on the wheel.
So, when the GPS, for instance, tells you to turn onto the trail behind the Johns Creek City Hall, you can still read the signs and stop.
This is exactly how the FOX 5 Storm Team operates: using vast expertise to analyze every available model and determine the most reasonable outcome for your neighborhood.
"The fact that they’re out there highlights the importance of having a trusted weather source, like the FOX 5 Storm Team," Forbes explained. "You know when you see something from us that there’s a decent degree of certainty to it."
La Niña creates a winter 'wild card' for Georgia
Big picture view:
While the FOX 5 Storm Team is tracking a 10-day window with no measurable snow, the broader winter outlook for 2025-26 remains a "wild card." According to NOAA, North Georgia faces "equal chances" of above- or below-normal temperatures—a signal that this season will be defined by individual storm tracks rather than a steady deep freeze.
A lurking La Niña pattern often heightens the risk for "rain-to-ice" transitions in Georgia. This is the exact scenario that caused widespread gridlock during the 2014 "SnowJam" and the back-to-back storms of January 2025.
A history of Atlanta's most disruptive winter storms
The backstory:
Atlanta averages about 2.2 inches of snow a year, but history shows it does not take much to paralyze the metro. Notable events in the city’s archives include:
January 2025: Two storms within two weeks dropped more than 2 inches of snow and a significant glaze of ice, grounding more than 1,000 flights.
January 2014: Only 2.6 inches of snow fell, but flash-freezing roads stranded thousands of commuters for up to 20 hours.
January 2011: A thick layer of snow and ice shut down 70% of the state for nearly five days.
March 1993: The "Storm of the Century" dropped 4.2 inches in the city and several feet in the North Georgia mountains.
The Source: This article is based on the expertise of the FOX 5 Storm Team with the National Weather Service contributing.