Vegas odds: Falcons aim to topple Bucs as 1.5-point favorites

By FOX 5 Atlanta Digital Team
Published  October 3, 2024 4:53pm EDT
FOX 5 Atlanta

ATLANTA, GA  SEPTEMBER 29:  An Atlanta cheerleader with a flag during the NFL game between the New Orleans Saints and the Atlanta Falcons on September 29th, 2024 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, GA.  (Photo by Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire …

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In brief: 

    • Falcons slightly favored over Buccaneers with a 2-2 record versus 3-1.
    • Bucs' WR Mike Evans battling injuries; performance in question.
    • Rookie RB Bucky Irving and WR Chris Godwin are top betting picks for scoring.
    • Buccaneers stronger in passing; Falcons struggle defensively, especially against the run.
    • Game's outcome vital for NFC South standings.

ATLANTA - The Atlanta Falcons will face off against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Thursday night in a pivotal NFC South matchup. Tampa Bay enters the game with a 3-1 record, while Atlanta is looking to improve on its .500 mark at 2-2. The Falcons are slight 1 1/2-point favorites, according to BetMGM NFL odds. 

In their last meeting, the Buccaneers edged out a 29-25 win over the Falcons in December 2023. Overall, Tampa Bay leads the series with 31 wins to Atlanta’s 30. 

Tampa Bay is coming off a dominant 33-16 win over the Philadelphia Eagles, while Atlanta narrowly defeated the New Orleans Saints 26-24 last week. The Buccaneers are 3-1 against the spread this season, while the Falcons are 1-3. 

Bucs’ Mike Evans vs. Falcons Defense 

Buccaneers wide receiver Mike Evans has been a key playmaker, becoming Tampa Bay’s all-time leading scorer last week. Evans has excelled against the Falcons throughout his career, with 92 receptions for 1,407 yards and 11 touchdowns in 18 games. Evans’ performance on Thursday could be pivotal, although he was limited in practice with knee and calf issues during the short week. 

SEE ALSO: Atlanta Falcons' fans among the most foul-mouthed in nation

Betting Insights  

With the NFL nearing the quarter-mark of the season, betting against the spread has been challenging for many fans, according to Ryan Hannable of BetMGM Sportsbook. However, alternative betting options like "anytime touchdown scorer" have gained popularity. 

For Thursday's game, Buccaneers rookie running back Bucky Irving is a player to watch. The Falcons have struggled to stop the run, allowing 145.5 rushing yards per game, ranking 24th in the league. Irving has shown promise, recording at least seven carries in each of the first four games while also catching six passes out of the backfield. He’s listed at +150 to score a touchdown, making him a solid bet for an anytime touchdown. 

Wide receiver Chris Godwin is another potential scorer for Tampa Bay, with odds also at +150. Godwin is looking to bounce back after failing to score for the first time this season in last week’s game. 

The Buccaneers offense ranks 16th overall in the NFL, excelling more in the passing game (10th) than the run (24th). Defensively, Tampa Bay has allowed the 11th-fewest points in the league, with a turnover differential of plus-2. 

Meanwhile, the Falcons offense ranks 20th overall, with balanced struggles in both the run (20th) and pass (18th). Their defense ranks 20th as well, with particular vulnerability against the run, allowing the 25th-most rushing yards in the league. Atlanta has a turnover differential of minus-1. 

The outcome of this game could have significant implications for both teams as they battle for positioning in the NFC South standings. 

Sources: 

  • BetMGM NFL