Weekend storm system threatens North Georgia with high winds and large hail

ATLANTA - Forecasters are warning of a potentially dangerous round of severe weather that could impact North Georgia by the end of the weekend and into early next week.

A large-scale storm system moves eastward across the central United States.

What we know:

According to the FOX 5 Storm Team, conditions could support all modes of severe weather — including damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes — as a strengthening upper-level trough pushes out of the western U.S. and interacts with a warm, moist air mass across the Southeast.

"Storm development [is] likely yielding storm development initially west of the Mississippi Valley, and then spreading eastward through the evening," the forecast stated. "The favorable thermodynamic environment will combine with strong/veering flow through the middle troposphere, suggesting of severe storms including supercells, and attendant, all-hazards severe potential."

By Monday, the front is expected to move east of the Appalachian Mountains. While some uncertainty remains about how quickly the system will exit the region, forecasters say there will likely be enough instability for severe storms to continue across portions of the Southeast, including Georgia.

"Enough destabilization should occur east and southeast of the front to allow storms to spread across the Southeast, along with attendant severe risk," the extended outlook noted.

What we don't know:

Still, questions remain regarding the exact timing and impact of the system. FOX 5 Storm Team meteorologist Jonathan Stacey said, "It’s going to kind of take us a while to get our arms around this." He added that the situation is "kind of a two-day deal, if you will, starting Sunday night going into Monday based on the models as of late."

Timeline:

Stacey said clouds will begin building over the weekend, with rain chances increasing Saturday as a lobe of energy approaches from the west and south. "At this point, I don’t want you to consider the weekend a washout, but we’ll be on watch for some potentially strong to severe storms Sunday into Monday," he said.

Rain totals on Saturday are expected to be light, around a half inch, with models suggesting a drier start to Sunday. However, Stacey warned, "Then a line comes through on Monday. It’s the timing of this line and the intensity of the line that will be the talk of the town as we get deeper into the workweek."

Temperatures on Friday are expected to top 80 degrees due to a stream of warm, southerly moisture. While the South could see scattered thunderstorms on Friday and Saturday, severe weather during that period is unlikely. "The lack of robust CAPE/shear likely to be associated with this feature suggests that severe potential should remain subdued," forecasters wrote.

What's next:

FOX 5 Storm Team meteorologist Alex Forbes echoed the concern for Sunday and Monday but emphasized that the situation is not expected to mirror a more dangerous severe weather outbreak from earlier this month.

"This map has been floating around out there and yes, there is somewhat of a severe weather threat for North Georgia at the end of the weekend and early next week. However, it certainly does not look like the threat a few weeks ago," Forbes said.

As models continue to evolve, forecasters are monitoring the final days of March — Sunday the 30th and Monday the 31st — for signs of a stormy close to the month. "We’re still six days out at this point, so we’ll continue to look for hints in the models to see exactly if we’re going to get hit with another round of severe storms, or is this going to be really just general rain and thunderstorm maker," Stacey said.

Residents across North Georgia are encouraged to stay weather-aware and review severe weather safety plans ahead of the approaching system.