Groundhog Day weather forecast: Clouds could impact Punxsutawney Phil's prediction

Groundhog handler John Griffiths holds Punxsutawney Phil after he saw his shadow predicting six more weeks of winter during 128th annual Groundhog Day festivities on Feb. 2, 2014, in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Jeff Swensen/Getty Images)

Sunday will be Punxsutawney Phil's big moment in the "Weather Capitol of the World," but it appears the forecast may already be hinting at a spring prediction for the Pennsylvania groundhog.

According to FOX 5 sister station WTXF, a cloudy day may make Phil spotting his shadow a lot more difficult.

MORE: Groundhog Day 2025: Time set for Punxsutawney Phil's prediction

What we know:

If Phil sees his shadow, there will be six more weeks of winter. If not, spring is just around the corner.

But, a shadow requires sun, and WTXF reports that Punxsutawney will have mostly cloudy skies and temperatures at a brisk 30-degree during Sunday's celebrations.

Of course, Phil's handlers say that the groundhog may be able to see his shadow no matter what the weather will be. He often spots his shadow after merging.  

So far, the National Weather Service is predicting above-average temperatures across the South after Groundhog Day. Colder temperatures will stick around across the North. 

How to watch the Groundhog Day celebration

What you can do:

You can watch the big reveal on the FOX LOCAL App or live on the FOX 5 Atlanta YouTube or Facebook pages. 

SEE MORE: Could weather affect General Beauregard Lee's prediction?

Groundhog Day history

Big picture view:

Groundhog Day traces its roots to ancient Celtic traditions, where Imbolc marked the midway point between the winter solstice and the spring equinox. Early Christians celebrated Candlemas around the same time, and German immigrants brought the custom of weather-forecasting animals to America, swapping European hedgehogs and badgers for the native groundhog.

Members of Punxsutawney Groundhog Club, organized in 1899, care for Phil at a customized space beside Punxsutawney Memorial Library — where there’s a window with a view into the creature’s burrow.

Georgia has its own groundhog who specializes in making weather predictions. General Beauregard "Beau" Lee will make his prediction as sunrise as well from his home at "Weathering Heights" at the Dauset Trails Nature Center in Jackson.

Which groundhog is more accurate?

By the numbers:

According to a 2022 study by FiveThirtyEight.com, Beau boasts a 63% accuracy rate for predictions from 2012 to 2021, outshining Phil’s 45.5%. The Dauset Trails Nature Center claims Beau’s accuracy is even higher, somewhere in the 90% range.

About 79% of the time, Phil sees his shadow, indicating more winter. However, Phil’s winter prognostications have only been right about 39% of the time, according to the Stormfax Almanac.

Last year, both Phil and Beau predicted an early spring.

The Source: Information for this story came from previous FOX 5 reporting, a story by FOX 29's Amanda Hurley, FOX Weather reports, and the Associated Press.

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