Atlantic Hurricane Season 2025: Forecasters predict above-normal activity
Hurricane season predictions released
The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season is shaping up to be another active one, with forecasters warning of above-average storm activity fueled by uncertain climate conditions. Colorado State University released its predictions for the season on Thursday morning.
ATLANTA - The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season is shaping up to be another active one, with forecasters warning of above-average storm activity fueled by uncertain climate conditions, according to Reuters. Researchers are predicting activity about 125% above the average for tropical storms between 1991 and 2020.
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Initial forecast released
What we know:
Leading hurricane researchers, including a team from Colorado State University (CSU), released their initial 2025 Atlantic hurricane season outlook on April 3 and it suggests another above-average year for tropical activity.
CSU’s forecast includes:
- 17 named storms
- 9 hurricanes
- 4 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher)
The forecast is based on multiple climate factors, including current La Niña conditions and long-range ocean temperature predictions. Though slightly less active than 2024, this season is still expected to exceed the long-term average.
The probability of at least one major hurricane making landfall:
- Entire U.S. coastline: 51% (historical average: 43%)
- U.S. East Coast (including Florida Peninsula): 26% (average: 21%)
- Gulf Coast (Florida Panhandle to Brownsville): 33% (average: 27%)
Additionally, there's a 56% chance of a major hurricane passing through the Caribbean, well above the historical norm of 47%.
Decade since below-normal season
The backstory:
The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1 through Nov. 30, and it has been ten years since the region experienced a below-normal season. The last such year was 2015, which saw just 11 named storms.
Since then, the region has seen a string of active years, including the record-breaking 2020 season with 30 named storms. Even the lowest count in recent years—14 named storms in 2022—still surpassed the historical average.
Major wildcard
What we don't know:
One major wildcard for the 2025 season is the future of ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation) conditions, according to FOX Weather.
While forecasters expect a transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral in the coming months, there’s "considerable uncertainty" about what will dominate this summer and fall. ENSO phases play a significant role in tropical storm development, with La Niña typically linked to more hurricane activity.
Don't wait to prepare
Why you should care:
The risks for significant hurricane impacts along the U.S. coastline and in the Caribbean are higher than normal, and that means communities should be thinking about preparation now—not in the midst of storm season.
With storms getting stronger and more frequent in recent years, early planning is critical for individuals, emergency managers, and policymakers.
Georgia was impacted by one major hurricane last year – Hurricane Helene.
Helene made landfall on Sept. 26 near Perry, Florida, as a Category 4 storm and tied as the 14th most powerful hurricane to hit the U.S. The hurricane resulted in 37 deaths across the state and caused billions of dollars in damage across a large portion of the state.
RELATED: Hurricane Helene: Death toll rises to 33 in Georgia, $417M in damages reported
Forecast will be updated
What's next:
Colorado State University will update its forecast as the season progresses and more atmospheric data becomes available. The next forecast update is typically released in early June, just ahead of the season's official start.
In the meantime, residents in vulnerable areas should review their hurricane preparedness plans and stay informed through official sources like the National Hurricane Center.